Real estate market data for the Greater Kansas City area,
including Johnson County, KS obtained from the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors and provided by
Tom
McChesney of Keller Williams Realty Key Partners LLC.
Call 913-908-2453 or
email me if you would like more detailed market
information specific to your neighborhood.
This is the time of year when the real estate market starts
heating up. Historically June and July are the biggest months based on number
of real estate transactions. The difference so far this year is that the market
is heating up much earlier than it has in previous years. Let’s look at how the
supply of inventory, interest rates, new construction, and student loan debt are
impacting the real estate market right now.
INVENTORY IS LOW!
Inventory tightened in 2015
due to increased demand from lower interest rates and continued sluggishness in
new home construction.
For the Greater Kansas City Heartland MLS areas, Months Supply of Inventory numbers are
even more dramatic:
Buyers:
Buyers are having a hard time
finding
the home they want because the selection of available homes is very
limited. When they find the home they want, more often than not they find
themselves competing against other offers. If you think the easy solution is to
just make sure you submit the highest bid: It’s not always the highest offer
that wins the home. In some cases, other terms of the contract or a personal
letter written by the buyer to the seller makes more of a difference than price. Right now, multiple offers are common and this
high demand, low inventory market is driving prices up. Listings can sell for as much as 5% over list
price. This is a Seller’s Market; the seller has the advantage.
While this can be a frustrating market for buyers, I
encourage buyers to enter the market now before projected rate increases occur.
Why? Because a 1%
increase in interest rates equals a 10% decrease in what you can afford to buy.
Get more house for the money while rates are low!
A professional real estate agent has the
ability to find the unlisted homes before they hit the market and can set you
up to receive an alert as soon as a home is listed in the MLS. If you consent
to a Buyer Agency agreement, then your real estate agent is representing your
interests in any negotiation with a seller or a seller’s agent. Contact me if you have any questions about a Buyer Agency Agreement.
Sellers:
Sellers with homes in good condition who
price their home in the market are
likely to find the house sells very quickly. Right now, many homes are sold
before they hit the market or within a few days of posting to MLS, often – but
not always – with multiple offers. This can
be a shock to the home owner and may cause concern that the house was priced
incorrectly. Not necessarily: high
demand, low inventory has created this situation, and the need for the house to
appraise still exists.
While a bidding war among buyers can drive the sale price
up, an appraiser will analyze recent sales and if the value cannot be substantiated,
the home will not appraise. Focus on all points of an offer, not just the price.
With demand for homes so high, you might think you don’t
need professional representation. In 2015, 87% of buyers had professional
representation. That means, agents working for the buyer negotiating for the
buyer’s interests, not yours! Less than 2% of buyers worked directly with the seller
in 2015.
Contact me if I can answer any
questions about professionally marketing your home.
Did you know? The median sales price in 2015 was $222,400.6.8% more than in 2014.
INTEREST RATES ARE LOW!
Interest rates average 3.85%
in 2015, down 0.32 percentage points from 2014’s average. Interest rates in
2015 were below 4% for almost all of 2015 and helped drive demand.
The general consensus for 2016 is that interest rates are
going to begin increasing sometime this year. While slight increases in
interest rates may not alarm you, consider this:
In the example above, the $222,400 house with a monthly
principal and interest payment of $1,044.00 would change with an interest rate
increase to 4.86% to a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,148.40.
Buyers:
Lower interest rates decrease your monthly
house payment so you devote a smaller percentage of your income to a house
payment. You can qualify for a larger loan amount which enables you to look at
nicer homes in a higher price bracket. My
free
home search tool can help you find the home for you and it also can put you
in touch with a lender to
learn
how much home you can qualify for at today’s interest rates. No one knows
how much rates will increase so exactly how much of an effect interest rate
increases will have cannot be predicted.
Sellers:
Low interest rates put more buyers for your
home in the market. As demand increases, prices increase. Higher interest rates
take some buyers out of the market for your home, lowering demand. As demand
falls, prices also fall. Sell while
demand is high!
Contact me to find out
how much your home could sell for in this market. No one knows how much rates
will increase so exactly how much of an effect interest rate increases will
have cannot be predicted.
Did you know? A 1% increase in
the interest rate equals a 10% increase in the monthly cost of a house. (Or, it decreases 10% the amount of house
that can be purchased with the same budget.)
NEW CONSTRUCTION STARTS REMAIN SLUGGISH
New home construction
continues to improve but is still well below the historical average.
Buyers:
In this market buyers don’t have as many
choices. Buyers may not be able to find new homes and may have to purchase
resale homes. Since there’s also a shortage in resale, buyers are competing
with other buyers for the nicest homes. Some buyers may be forced to buy older homes
in need of work.
Even with a shortage of
inventory, it’s
still
a good time to buy a home because interest rates are low and affordability
is at an all-time high.
Sellers:
This is a good time to sell your home since
you don’t have to compete with as many new homes. You may be able to
sell your home at a higher price
without new homes in the same price range competing against you for buyers.
Did you know? Below average new home starts
contributes to a shortage of inventory.
STUDENT LOAN DEBT INCREASING
Between 20013 and 2015, the
total amount of student loan debt nearly quintupled, going from $241 billion to
$1.2 trillion. A 398% increase.
As a market segment, the number of first-time homebuyers is
dwindling. This correlates to increasing student loan debt and high unemployment
or underemployment among recent college graduates. These factors are forcing
young people to delay homeownership. First-time
homebuyers are usually 40% of the market so a significant portion of the market
is missing.
Buyers:
Avoid going into debt as much as possible.
Pay off existing debt as quickly as possible and don’t allow yourself to be
late or fall behind on payments as this will affect your credit rating and
impact your ability to purchase a home. If your debt-to-income ratio is too
high, you may not qualify for a home loan, or at least not for the home you
might want to buy. Visit
my website if you
would like more information on qualifying for or purchasing a home.
Sellers:
With a large segment of buyers missing from
the market, the best advice is to work with a professional who is able to
properly position your house in the marketplace to maximize the number of
prospective buyers and get you the most that you are able to get from the sale
of your house. Visit
my website to learn
more about selling your home or
contact me
to learn how much your home your home could sell for in today’s market.
A 398% increase in
student debt between 2003 and 2015 is staggering. Has income gone up 398% in
the last 12 years to compensate? (No.)
THE ECONOMY – AN OVERVIEW
Real estate experiences
highs and lows in varying degrees. Is it worth it?
Ultimately that’s a question you have to answer for
yourself. Like anything else, there are
pros and cons to owning real estate. As
you can see from the data above comparing homeownership to renting, median net
worth is substantially greater for homeowners. Over the long term, real estate
has been and continues to be one of the best investments you can make as homes
tend to appreciate over time. Whether you rent or own, you are making a house
payment and the economy has an effect on both segments of the housing market.
The best advice you can receive about real estate you own or
wish to purchase will come from your local real estate professional who
monitors local trends and can advise you accordingly.
Contact
me if I can help you with your real estate needs!
Real estate market data for the Greater Kansas City area,
including Johnson County, KS obtained from the KCRAR and provided by
Tom
McChesney of Keller Williams Realty Key Partners LLC.